The Arab Spring Rollback and Varieties of Arab ‘Autocratization’

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The Arab region, or MENA (Middle East and North Africa), has had a chequered history with democratization. Today, the prevailing trend is less one of democratic transition than of autocratization and democratic de-consolidation. Against this backdrop, the Toda Peace Institute presents An Eye on Arab De-democratization, a series examining patterns of democratic erosion across nine countries, alongside a case study on the gender dimensions of democratization.

Discussions of democracy in the Middle East are often conducted in the abstract, shaped by assumptions formed elsewhere rather than by sustained engagement with the region’s own political histories and constraints. The result can be analysis that is either unduly pessimistic or insufficiently grounded in political reality. This series approaches democracy not as a fixed model to be applied, but as a contested practice shaped by local histories, social relations, and regional dynamics. Across diverse settings, the authors examine representation, accountability, participation, and civic space, recognising both structural constraints and political choices.

The series appears at a moment when democratic governance is under strain globally. In much of the Middle East, political space has narrowed, conflicts persist, and economic and social pressures have intensified. Yet demands for dignity, justice, and responsive governance endure. Understanding these tensions requires empirically grounded analysis rather than sweeping or deterministic claims.

The reports are written by leading scholars and edited and introduced by Professor Larbi Sadiki. They will be published over three weeks in February and March 2026. The views expressed are those of the authors alone and their diversity reflects both the complexity of the subject matter and the importance of maintaining open intellectual inquiry on issues that are politically sensitive and morally charged.

We thank the editor and contributors for the seriousness and independence of their work and hope this series contributes to deeper reflection on democracy’s possibilities and limits in the region.

Access the full report here


This article was first published on the Toda Peace Institute site.