Mapping the System Dynamics of Democratic Erosion

In June 2023, the Toda Peace Institute convened its international Working Group on Global Challenges to Democracy to examine the forces driving democratic decline worldwide. Drawing on years of research and practice, the group set out to understand democratic erosion, not as a series of isolated problems, but as an interconnected system of actors, incentives, and behaviours. This discussion led to the use of systems mapping, a method for visualising how different factors interact dynamically over time. Using causal loop diagramming, systems maps depict cause-and-effect relationships that form reinforcing cycles—often accelerating democratic decline—or balancing dynamics that can stabilise and restore democratic processes.

Why Systems Mapping?

Systems mapping helps move beyond static analysis by showing how patterns of behaviour become entrenched. A systems map can be valuable for identifying strategic points of intervention—where targeted actions can interrupt harmful cycles or strengthen positive dynamics. While the maps themselves are analytical tools, their real value lies in the strategic thinking they support. The Working Group began with an initial draft systems map and has continued to refine it through an iterative process, drawing on existing research and collaborative input. Additional resources on systems thinking and causal loop diagramming can be found here.